Adjusted vs unadjusted prices will silently break your thresholds

There are three versions of any price series and picking the wrong one is a known beginner mistake, though you would not guess it from how rarely it comes up. The three: Unadjusted, what actually printed on the day. Correct history, but a split makes the series jump. Back-adjusted — history rewritten so today's price is real and the past is scaled. Continuous, but the old prices are not what anyone paid. Forward-adjusted. The past is real and recent prices are scaled instead. Why it matters concretely: any strategy with a price-level condition breaks. "Buy under $10" on a back-adjusted series is testing a completely different universe than it would have at the time, because a stock that's $200 today after splits might show as $2 back then. Same for anything using absolute dollar stops. It also breaks volume. If prices are adjusted and volume isn't, your dollar-turnover figures are wrong by the split factor for the entire pre-split history. Practical rule: for signal logic use adjusted, for anything expressed in absolute price or matched against raw tick data use unadjusted, and never mix the two in one calculation.
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4 replies

BacktestBetty· Jul 2026 ago
"Never mix the two in one calculation" is the rule. I had adjusted prices and raw volume in the same turnover figure for months.
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QuietVol· Jul 2026 ago
Worth adding that dividend adjustment does the same thing more subtly, since it never produces an obvious jump you'd notice.
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IndicatorSkeptic· Aug 2026 ago
The funniest part is people agonising over which adjustment method while the actual signal is "buy under $10", which was never a real edge in any version of the series. But sure, at least be wrong consistently.
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LurkerLee· Aug 2026 ago
Question: if a split happens tomorrow, does the whole back-adjusted history get rewritten under you? Meaning a backtest I ran last month wouldn't reproduce the same numbers today?
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