confused about how to actually compare the four exit variants

So I read the piece in the library comparing four intraday exits against the same entry and I love the idea — I've spent basically all my time fiddling with entry conditions and zero on exits, which now feels dumb. But I tried setting it up and got stuck on the comparison part. My entry is a pretty simple mean reversion thing, maybe 3-6 trades a day on a small watchlist. When I swap variant 1 for variant 2 (the time exit), the number of trades changes, because trades that used to sit around for an hour now close in 20 min and sometimes the entry fires again on the same name later. So it's not the same set of trades anymore. Is that fine? Like am I supposed to just accept that and compare total return / average per trade, or should I be doing something smarter so it's apples to apples? Second confusion: variants 3 and 4 both use MaxProfitPct but they seem to do almost the same job? 3 gives back 1.0 from the peak, 4 basically drags you to flat. If my typical winner only ever gets to like 1.2% then the MaxProfitPct >= 1.5 branch never even fires and 3 and 4 collapse into the same rule as... well, a wider version of 1. Is the right move to lower that 1.5 threshold to match how far my trades actually travel, or does that count as overfitting? I genuinely can't tell where "tuning to your entry" ends and "curve fitting" starts. Third, dumb question: is 1s-5m timeframe here meaning how often the exit condition gets checked? Because if my rule is only evaluated every 5 min a -1.0 stop is not really a -1.0 stop is it. Still learning, sorry if any of this is obvious.
MLcurious
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DrawdownDave· Jun 2026 ago
Not obvious at all, and the third question is the one that ate me alive last year — I had a stop I was very proud of on paper and in practice I kept finding out where price actually was well past where I thought I'd be out. Never blamed the rule, blamed how often I was looking at it.
CryptoKarl· Jun 2026 ago· edited Aug 2026 ago
On the 1.5 threshold thing. I'd at least go look at the distribution of MaxProfitPct across your existing trades before touching it, because if half your winners never sniff 1.5 then variants 3 and 4 aren't being tested at all, they're just sitting there. Doing that on perps taught me more than any entry tweak, though obviously my hold times are a different animal.
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HalfKelly· Jun 2026 ago· edited Aug 2026 ago
On the apples-to-apples worry. I'd stop trying to force it. If a faster exit frees the capital up and the entry fires again, that re-entry is a real consequence of the rule, not a measurement artifact, so you'd be hiding the effect by matching trade counts. What I'd do instead is compare on two axes: expectancy per trade (avg win x win rate minus avg loss x loss rate) AND total return per unit of exposure — roughly PnL divided by the sum of position size x time held. The first tells you if the rule picks better exits, the second tells you if it's using your capital more efficiently. A variant can lose on the first and win on the second and that's a perfectly good outcome, you just want to know which one it is. Only rule: identical sizing across all four, otherwise you're measuring your sizing, not your exits.
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CoffeeAndCharts· Jun 2026 ago
Not a dumb question set at all, honestly this is the stuff most people skip for years. On the tuning vs curve fitting line, the way I keep myself honest is: pick the threshold on the first chunk of your history, then never touch it again and see how it holds on the rest. If you're nudging 1.5 down to 1.4 then 1.3 watching the number go up, that's the fitting part.
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NightOwl_Yuki· Jul 2026 ago
for the 5m thing — easy sanity check is run the exact same variant at two different check intervals and look at how much the results move. if 1s vs 5m barely changes anything your trades are slow enough that it doesn't matter, if it swings wildly then the interval IS your strategy and you should be honest about that. i do most of mine overnight on crypto and the gap between checks is where all my surprises live
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