Win rate on its own tells you almost nothing

A 70% win rate sounds excellent until you learn the average loser is four times the average winner. A 35% win rate sounds broken until you learn the winners run. The pair that matters is win rate and payoff ratio together, and even then the median trade tells you more than the mean, because the mean is hostage to your best few trades. When someone posts a strategy result, the first two questions worth asking are: what's the average win divided by average loss, and what does the distribution look like without the top three trades?
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QuietVol
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HalfKelly· Jul 2026 ago
And once you have both, you can compute expectancy, which is the only number that says whether to trade it at all.
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MomoQueen· Jul 2026 ago
My win rate is genuinely bad and my results are fine. Took me a long time to stop feeling bad about the first number!
MLcurious· Jul 2026 ago
Question — when you say drop the top three trades, is that just a sanity check or do you actually use the trimmed number for anything? I keep training models that look amazing and then I find out one trade carried the whole backtest. Feels like the same problem in a different costume.
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SpreadWatcher· Jul 2026 ago
Also worth asking what the payoff ratio looks like after commissions and slippage rather than on paper fills. A 1.5:1 that's really 1.15:1 once you cross the spread every time changes the whole picture, and the high win rate systems are usually the ones getting eaten alive because they trade the most.
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GapHunterMike· Jul 2026 ago
win rate is the number people post when they don't want to post the equity curve. ask for the drawdown too. long string of small wins means nothing if one loser wipes out twenty of them.
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