Your fill assumption is doing more work than your entry logic

Two backtests of the same idea can differ by more than most entry tweaks, purely on what price you assumed you got. If you assume the mid, you're assuming someone met you halfway on every trade. If you assume you crossed the spread every time, you get a pessimistic number that's usually closer to reality for anything fast. The honest approach is to test both and see whether the strategy survives the pessimistic version. If it only works at the mid, it doesn't work, you've found an idea that requires a favor from the market on every single entry.
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SpreadWatcher
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QuietVol· Jul 2026 ago
Worth adding that the gap between the two versions is itself a useful statistic. A large gap means your edge is execution-sensitive.
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MomoQueen· Jul 2026 ago
Fast-moving names is exactly where this bites. My cleanest backtests were on the least fillable stuff!
BacktestBetty· Jul 2026 ago
Three things I log for every run: 1) mid fill, 2) full spread crossed, 3) spread crossed plus a tick of slip on exits. If the ranking of my variants changes between 1 and 3, I stop trusting the parameter tuning entirely — that's usually a sign I fit the fill model, not the edge.
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RiskFirstRita· Jul 2026 ago
Adding to QuietVol's point — I treat a big mid-vs-crossed gap as a position size input, not just a stat. If the edge only survives pessimistic fills by a hair, that's not a size-up candidate, that's a paper-trade-longer candidate. My checklist has a line for it now.
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DrawdownDave· Jul 2026 ago
I once had a beautiful equity curve on a thing that traded right at the open in a thin name. Live, my fills looked nothing like the backtest and the curve flipped. Took me way too long to accept the strategy was never real, I kept blaming my timing.
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