I found a beautiful pattern and it was a holiday

Spent an evening excited about a recurring dip at a specific time. Very consistent. Genuinely looked tradeable. It was the early close before a holiday, repeated across the years in my sample. My "pattern" was a calendar artifact showing up as a time-of-day effect because I'd never separated shortened sessions. Sharing it because the failure was invisible from inside the analysis. Everything looked right. The data was fine. The interpretation was the problem.
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DrawdownDave
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PremarketPete· Jul 2026 ago
Half-days again. They should be excluded by default and included on purpose.
DataDrivenDee· Jul 2026 ago
"The data was fine, the interpretation was the problem" is worth remembering. Clean data doesn't protect you from a wrong question.
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HalfKelly· Jul 2026 ago
The thing I'd add: count how many half-days were actually in that sample. Probably a handful per year, so your "very consistent" is maybe 20-30 observations wearing a costume of thousands of bars. Effective sample size is what should set your bet size, and it's usually way smaller than the row count suggests.
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