the fade writeup: how do you filter out the days it kills you?

Been chewing on the strategy-library piece about fading extended moves since before the open. Notes: - The honest part is the asymmetry. 1.2% target vs 2% stop. That's stated up front, which I respect, but I still can't get my head around living with it. - Math I did on a napkin: with those numbers you need roughly 63% winners just to break even before fees. Fine. Win rate on this style usually looks better than that. Until one day it doesn't. - The conditions (below the 300 average, volume floor, falling streak) all filter for "extended". None of them filter for *why* it's extended. A gap-and-go liquidation and a slow grind down look identical to that ruleset. My actual question for people who run mean reversion intraday: - Do you add a regime filter on top? Something like "only take the fade if the daily trend isn't already broken" or a volatility ceiling? Or does that just shrink the sample to nothing? - The time exit (1200s) — is that doing more work than people think? Feels like the real risk control, more than the -2%. - I premarket everything. Tempted to just blacklist names that already gapped hard and let the rest run. Anyone tried that or am I inventing extra rules to feel safe? Not trying to talk anyone out of the category. Just want to know what people actually bolt on before they let it trade unattended.
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PremarketPete
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GrandpaGrizzly· Jun 2026 ago
Fading extended moves is the oldest way I know to get carried out. Back in the day we called it catching the falling piano — sounds musical right up until it lands. Your instinct about the gap is right: a name that gapped on news isn't extended, it's repriced. Stay humble.
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DrawdownDave· Jun 2026 ago
I did the blacklist thing you're describing, for about three weeks. Then I noticed I'd blacklisted everything that was actually moving and my fills were on dead tickers where the fade never came back. Not saying don't do it, just saying I made a filter that removed the very thing the setup needed. Cost me less money than the gappers did though, so, silver lining.
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RiskFirstRita· Jun 2026 ago· edited Aug 2026 ago
The 63% breakeven is the number people skip past and you didn't, good. But if you're worried about the day it kills you, the fix isn't a cleverer filter first. It's size. That 2% stop only matters as a fraction of the account, and a fade strategy will hand you correlated losers on the same day because the whole tape is doing the same thing. Cap the number of concurrent fades before you cap anything else.
ZenTrader_Ana· Jul 2026 ago
The part that stood out to me is "I still can't get my head around living with it." That's worth sitting with before you add rules. A 2% stop with a 1.2% target means you spend most of your screen time underwater on trades that eventually work — how do you usually handle that stretch?
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SpreadWatcher· Jul 2026 ago
Time exit is doing a lot of work, yes, but be careful what you think it's protecting you from. A 1200s forced exit on an extended name means you're taking whatever the book gives you at that moment, and on a thin one that's not the mid. Your 1.2% target has to survive two crossings of the spread plus whatever the exit costs. Model that before you model regime filters.
DataDrivenDee· Jul 2026 ago· edited Aug 2026 ago
Genuine question on the gap blacklist. How would you test it? You'd need to tag every historical entry with a premarket gap size, then compare the two buckets. If the gappers are 5% of your sample you won't learn much either way. Same problem with the regime filter, honestly: I'd want to see the trade count per bucket before I trusted the win rate difference.
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NightOwl_Yuki· Jul 2026 ago
fading works differently on crypto overnight fwiw — the 'why' you're missing is usually just a liquidation cascade and those do mean revert, but only after they're done. i wait for the wick to stop making new lows for a few candles instead of trying to guess the extension. no idea if that translates to stocks though.
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MomoQueen· Jul 2026 ago· edited Aug 2026 ago
The regime filter question. Yes I run one but it's dumb simple, if the daily is below its own trend I just don't fade shorts into it! Not clever, but it stops me arguing with myself at 9:45. And Dave's point is real, half my filters over the years quietly deleted the good trades too!!
CryptoKarl· Aug 2026 ago
been carried out by exactly this on perps, except with leverage so the 2% stop was more like my entire week lol. self aware enough now to say the filter that saved me wasn't a filter at all, it was cutting size until a full stop out was boring. Rita already said it but it bears repeating because nobody actually does it
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PremarketPete· Aug 2026 ago
Fair hits all round. - Dee: agreed, gap bucket is probably too thin to learn from. Might tag it anyway and just look, not act. - SpreadWatcher: hadn't priced the two crossings properly. That's the one that changes my numbers. - Ana: badly, is the honest answer. I watch it. - Rita: size noted. Correlated losers is the bit I keep forgetting.
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IndicatorSkeptic· Aug 2026 ago
Everyone's hunting a filter for "why it's extended" and the chart already told you — it's how it got there. Slow grind down with overlapping candles is a different animal to one bar doing all the work, and you don't need a regime label to see the difference. Also mildly enjoying that your napkin math is the most useful thing in the thread and it came before any of the rules.
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