the fade writeup: how do you filter out the days it kills you?
Been chewing on the strategy-library piece about fading extended moves since before the open. Notes:
- The honest part is the asymmetry. 1.2% target vs 2% stop. That's stated up front, which I respect, but I still can't get my head around living with it.
- Math I did on a napkin: with those numbers you need roughly 63% winners just to break even before fees. Fine. Win rate on this style usually looks better than that. Until one day it doesn't.
- The conditions (below the 300 average, volume floor, falling streak) all filter for "extended". None of them filter for *why* it's extended. A gap-and-go liquidation and a slow grind down look identical to that ruleset.
My actual question for people who run mean reversion intraday:
- Do you add a regime filter on top? Something like "only take the fade if the daily trend isn't already broken" or a volatility ceiling? Or does that just shrink the sample to nothing?
- The time exit (1200s) — is that doing more work than people think? Feels like the real risk control, more than the -2%.
- I premarket everything. Tempted to just blacklist names that already gapped hard and let the rest run. Anyone tried that or am I inventing extra rules to feel safe?
Not trying to talk anyone out of the category. Just want to know what people actually bolt on before they let it trade unattended.